Chet Edwards For Congress

April 20, 2008

Chet Edwards safe in 2008, watchers say

Waco Tribune Herald
By David Doerr | Tribune-Herald staff writer

Four years ago, Republicans appeared to have the wind at their backs in their efforts to oust long-term Democratic target U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards.

Republicans were successful in 2003’s bitterly fought mid-decade redistricting battle, which forced the Waco Democrat to run in a mostly new district with a large number of voters who weren’t familiar with him. Edwards was also paired against a well-funded and competitive Republican for whom the district had been designed.

But political winds have shifted over the last four years, causing national and local political handicappers to forecast that the race for Edwards’ district — Texas’ 17th Congressional District, official residence of President Bush — won’t even be competitive.

“They have thrown everything, including the kitchen sink, at Chet Edwards and he has beat them,” said Thomas Myers, a Baylor University political science professor. “There are very few named Republicans that will take the Republican nomination because they figure, as most objective people do, they will be soundly defeated.”

Rob Curnock, Edwards’ latest Republican challenger, discounts such evaluations. Among the things he counts in his own favor: avoiding a bruising contested primary election, something previous Republican challengers had to weather.

If political observers are correct, it would be a remarkable rise to political security for Edwards, who represents a district where 64.6 percent of the vote went to statewide Republican candidates in the 2006 general election.

The nine-term congressman has been perceived as vulnerable for years because of the strong Republican voting history in the districts he represented. But political observers say his work on behalf of military bases and veterans as well as his ability to bring home federal funds for projects have helped inoculate him when he has voted more in line with the Democratic Party.

The hotly controversial redistricting of 2003 split Bell and Coryell counties from McLennan County, eliminating a key base of Edwards’ support in the communities around Fort Hood. But Edwards squeaked by with a 4-percentage-point win in 2004, then increased his margin of victory in 2006 to 18 points over a candidate who had served in the Iraq war.

This year isn’t shaping up to be a good one to defeat Edwards either, according to several political observers.

Soon after Curnock signed up in January as the only Republican candidate to run against Edwards, Charlie Cook, a much-respected Washington, D.C.-based political handicapper, rated Edwards’ district “Solid D.” It was the first time since 1998 that Edwards’ district was not rated competitive by The Cook Political Report.

Congressional Quarterly followed suit last month, labeling District 17 “Safe Democratic,” claiming that Curnock was not a “top-tier candidate.” Another article from the Washington-insider publication said Curnock was “little-known and underfunded.”

Several other Texas political observers agreed that Edwards doesn’t appear to be in danger of losing his seat in Congress this year.

“The Edwards district was drawn to make it tougher for Edwards, but they just couldn’t really make it impossible,” said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. “With (his opponent) not being able to close this thing out in 2004, he survived and is increasingly comfortable in his new district.”

Steve Bickerstaff, a University of Texas at Austin professor who wrote a book about the divisive, Republican-pushed redistricting effort, said Edwards is a difficult Democratic incumbent to defeat for two reasons: his strong bipartisan support and the fact that McLennan County was not divided between two districts.

“McLennan County has a third of a congressional district (worth of population),” he said. “Unless you were willing to divide McLennan County up, then Edwards was going to have a pretty solid base.”

Besides McLennan County, Edwards’ long, winding district includes all of Bosque, Brazos, Grimes, Hill, Hood, Johnson, Madison and Somervell counties and parts of Burleson, Limestone and Robertson counties.

After Edwards won in 2004, he was able to shore up his support in the new areas he didn’t represent before Republicans split off Bell and Coryell counties and folded them into another district. Edwards’ new district stretched from the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs in Hood and Johnson counties down to the Brazos Valley region, home to Texas A&M University — and, coincidentally, Edwards’ alma mater.

Edwards has also won support in new areas of the revamped district by securing federal funds through the earmark process, an ability that is strengthened through his seniority and seat on the powerful U.S. House Appropriations Committee. The fact his party has been in ascendancy in recent years hasn’t hurt, either.

In 2005, Edwards secured more than $100 million in projects for District 17. He followed it up with a similar performance last year with $91.5 million worth of earmarks for projects scattered across the district.

Brazos County Judge Randy Sims, a Republican, said Edwards’ ability to bring federal dollars to his county is one reason he voted for him in 2006.

“He was very conscientious about meeting everybody down here and getting to know them,” he said. “We can’t ask for anything and get everything in the world. We accepted that, but where he could plug in, he did. He has been very helpful.”

Sims is just the kind of voter that Curnock says he’s targeting in his uphill campaign. After coming out of the GOP primary election unopposed and unbruised, Curnock said he believes he’s in a better position than other Republican candidates who have challenged Edwards in recent years.

He acknowledges his underdog status, including his current lack of financial support from the National Republican Congressional Committee. But he says it could work in his favor if Edwards ignores his campaign.

However, Curnock says he understands the importance of proving to fellow Republicans he’s a viable candidate.

“We are a 64-percent Republican district,” he said. “If we can get 4 to 6 percent of our Republican voters that have been voting with Chet in the past, if we can keep them in our column this time, we win.”

Edwards says that while he appreciates political observers calling his seat safe, he doesn’t plan to take it for granted.

“I think this district still leans Republican, but I am finding more and more people are more independent-minded and share my sense that neither party has a monopoly on truth, values or wisdom,” Edwards said. “I think most voters in our district will vote based on who they think is qualified, and they are looking beyond party labels.”

Curnock says he plans to focus his campaign on highlighting votes Edwards has made that he believes show he is out of line with the conservative values of Central Texas.

“We are going to offer a clear choice alternative. Then it will be up to the voters to decide if they want to continue with more of the same, which basically is having someone who agrees with (U.S. House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi on the issues or someone who is going to have a more conservative value system,” Curnock said.

Edwards says that’s a line of attack that has failed in nine previous elections.

“I respect the judgment of voters and if I didn’t reflect the values of Central Texas families, I would have not been elected to Congress and then re-elected eight additional times,” he said.

Myers, the Baylor professor, said there are three things that can lead to an incumbent congressman’s defeat: a scandal directly involving that congressman, a congressman losing touch with his or her district, or a tidal wave election that changes the majority-minority status of the political parties. He said he doesn’t believe any of that will happen in this year’s battle for the 17th District.

“(Edwards) seems to stay attuned to his district,” he said. “The next election is probably going to go heavily Democratic in terms of Congress. I think it is a totally safe election for Chet Edwards. He’s smart enough not to treat it like that.”